Pelton mailbag: What are a contingency Warriors brush a field?

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This week’s mailbag facilities your questions on either a Golden State Warriors can brush a playoff field, weird Hall of Fame cases and an inventive new playoff seeding idea.

You can twitter your questions regulating a hashtag #peltonmailbag or email them to peltonmailbag@gmail.com.


Well, that depends on that numbers and what assumptions we make. The Warriors could face many opposite teams in a Western Conference finals and NBA Finals, should they make it that far, and their contingency would change depending on a opposition.

To simplify, let’s contend that Golden State faces a highest-seeded group via a West playoffs and a Cleveland Cavaliers in a NBA Finals. (Sorry, Boston Celtics fans.) In that case, requesting a indication we use to envision array formed on regular-season indicate differential and head-to-head formula (not counting a Finals, where head-to-head is no longer meaningful) offers a following chances:

  • First turn (Portland): 63.4 percent

  • Conference semifinals (LA Clippers): 46.2 percent

  • Conference finals (San Antonio): 10.1 percent

  • NBA Finals (Cleveland): 29.0 percent

Collectively, that’s usually a 0.9 percent possibility of an rare Fo’, Fo’, Fo’, Fo’ playoff run for a Warriors. While a brush luck opposite San Antonio is substantially underestimated since of Golden State resting stars in one of a 3 head-to-head meetings, a chances of unconditional Cleveland and Portland (if Jusuf Nurkic plays) are substantially overestimated. So I’d contend 100:1 opposite are reasonable odds.


“I adore a NBA, yet wish a NBA Finals would span a dual best teams some-more mostly than it does. On a other hand, we do know that a advantage of a stream discussion setup is that teams are some-more expected to have repeat playoff matchups vs. an opponent, that engenders rivalries. So, here’s my idea. we would keep a stream discussion playoff format by a initial dual rounds, yet reseed during a indicate that 4 teams remained. What do we think?” – Al

That’s a flattering inventive idea, all things considered. Ahead of building rivalries, a strongest evidence opposite a single-league playoff format is travel. In a display during a MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, NBA comparison VP of basketball plan and analytics Evan Wasch showed that stealing conferences would emanate matchups in that teams trafficked opposite 3 time zones (not probable until a NBA Finals now) some 18 percent of a time, while matchups occurring within a same time section would diminution from 55 percent to 30 percent.

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  • Time zones benefaction many problems for 16-team playoffs. If 3 of a 4 home teams during a discussion semifinals were in a Eastern time zone, for example, it would force one of them to start games during 9:30 p.m. internal time during beginning to make a inhabitant TV doubleheader work.

    Your idea manages to solve both of those problems. While it would expected boost travel, during many we’re articulate about going from one cross-country array (in a NBA Finals) to three, and mostly a disproportion wouldn’t be that good since teams from a same discussion would play any other. And watchful until a semifinals means a doubleheader emanate no longer exists. So we competence have sole me on this one.


    “Can we greatfully explain a inclusion of Klay Thompson in All-Star and all NBA discussions? Klay has had a surprisingly common season, yet people usually seem to notice his occasional scoring outburst. His PER is tighten to normal during 17.57, and for all a speak of his defense, he rates as a reduction defender per DRPM, even while on a tip defensive team. Throw in his below-average support and resilient rates during a SG position, and it’s tough to disagree that he’s been some-more than a unequivocally good one-dimensional player. He’s a surprising shooter, don’t get me wrong. But for all a concentration on modernized metrics these days, everybody seems to omit them when evaluating Thompson’s opening this year.” – Jason Bowlsby

    I don’t know that there’s a quite clever All-NBA box for Thompson this year unless we wish to give him additional credit for personification sharpened guard. All 6 players who done my All-NBA group during ensure play a point, if we count James Harden that way.

    However, we do cruise you’re undervaluing Thompson’s production. Although in ubiquitous players with blocks and steals rates identical to his are bad defenders, we do cruise it’s probable to be a good defender though those box-score contributions. And 2016-17 RAPM (the chronicle of practiced plus-minus from RPM co-creator Jerry Engelmann that doesn’t embody box-score stats and looks usually during group opening with a actor on and off a court) has Thompson in a area of chosen wing defenders Jimmy Butler, Danny Green and Andre Roberson.

    Add in a spacing Thompson’s sharpened and transformation though a basketball yield and we would cruise him one of a 20 to 25 best players in a NBA, yet substantially not one of a best 15.


    Well, weird is substantially a biased thing, yet Joe Johnson‘s is positively an engaging case. we remarkable during a summer of 2015 that Johnson was headed for a 20,000-point symbol that has roughly always historically resulted in Hall of Fame initiation (with one exception). So it was sparkling to be in a building final Saturday as Johnson reached a miracle opposite a Portland Trail Blazers.

    Johnson’s 7 All-Star appearances also bode good for his Hall of Fame chances. Jack Sikma is a usually contemporary actor who done during slightest 7 All-Star Games who is not in a Hall of Fame. (Larry Foust, a 1950s core who done 8 All-Star appearances in an epoch where there were twice as many All-Stars as teams, is a other actor with some-more than 7 who’s not in a Hall of Fame.)

    At a same time, a reason Johnson’s Hall of Fame box is surprising is his value metrics don’t advise he belongs. Johnson ranks outward a tip 250 all time in my championships combined metric and his 70 career wins above deputy actor (WARP) would be among a lowest totals for a Hall of Famer though important college or general knowledge as partial of his case.

    Additionally, Johnson done usually one All-NBA appearance, as partial of a third group in 2009-10. The miss of All-NBA credit has been a adhering indicate for Sikma, who had a set-back of peaking during a duration when there were usually dual All-NBA teams and those nods roughly always went to associate centers Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Moses Malone. So it will be engaging to see how a Hall deals with Johnson when he eventually calls it a career.


    Speaking of weird Hall of Fame cases, Andre Iguodala could join Bill Walton as a second actor in NBA story to win both Finals MVP and a Sixth Man Award. There’s positively a box for Iguodala, whose ability to assistance his teams win has generally exceeded his box-score statistics. If we had to select one of them to play on my group for their whole career I’d take Iguodala over Johnson. But we doubt a Hall of Fame cabinet will be means to demeanour past Iguodala’s singular All-Star coming though an All-NBA nod.


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